Pac-10 outperforms the SEC -- FreeMethomps, WeAreSC.com

The SEC is an elite conference, right? Well, what would you say if I told you that, since 2000, the Pac10 has out-performed the SEC in non-conference play? No, I'm not talking about head-to-head (although we do have an advantage over them there), but rather out-of-conference as a whole. Straight up record favors the SEC:

SEC record in OOC games: 151-57 (72.60%)
PAC record in OOC games: 124-51 (70.86%)

But let's look at things by situation. Let's start with home games:

Out-of Conference Home Games
(Winning Percentage since 2000)



Now here is how you read this chart: The SEC has a 16-15 record at home against BCS teams (basically teams from the six major conferences and Notre Dame). Thus, they win 51.61% of their home games against BCS teams. The Pac10 is 20-13 at home against BCS teams. They win 60.61% of the time in that situation. NonBCS teams are teams from the 'minor' conferences.

Now let's look at away games:

Out-of Conference Away Games
(Winning Percentage since 2000)



This chart is read the same way.

Bowl Games
(Winning Percentage since 2000)



I calculated the NonBCS bowl games, but it should probably be disregarded as there are not enough games in the sample.

Just to be complete, here are neutral games that were not bowl games (Kickoff Classics, etc.):



Here is a summary of the results:


*Winning % since 2000



Ok, five minute break to stretch and get some food.

Welcome back. As you can see, the Pac10 is competitive in every category, and actually leads in everything but the home games versus nonBCS teams and bowl games versus BCS-conference teams. Even in those two categories, the SEC's lead is quite small and certainly not as big as it should be if we are to believe that the SEC is shoulders above the Pac10 So how does the SEC end up having a slightly better OOC record? For that answer, we turn to what kind of games the conferences tend to play. This next chart shows what proportion of each conferences OOC games are played by type:



*Note: This is not winning %. Read below for explanation
**Bowl games are not included in the calculation since this is intended to explore scheduling tendencies

Here is how to read this chart: The SEC plays 78.37% of all its OOC games at home. The Pac10 plays 64.57% of its OOC games at home. 14.90% of the SEC's OOC games are home games against BCS-conference schools. 13.94% of the SEC's OOC games are road games against BCS-conference schools. 51.92% of the SEC's OOC games are home games against Non-BCS schools. Here is another breakdown of the game types:


Out-of-Conference Games by Type



*Bowl games are not included in the calculation since this is intended to explore scheduling tendencies





Even though the Pac10 is almost as good or better than the SEC at every game situation, the SEC is able to have a slightly better overall record because they play a higher percentage of the games that are 'easier (home games, games against Non-BCS or D1-AA teams). They play very few of the kind of games that they struggle in (away games against BCS-conference schools).

Now, let me guess your top criticism. "Maybe the SEC plays tougher teams than the Pac10 teams do". To explore this, I looked at the record of every BCS team played by both conferences. Here are the winning percentages of the opponents (BCS opponents only):

Home games
SEC opponents: 198-150 (56.90%)
PAC10 opponents: 200-145 (57.97%)

**The opponents are practically even, perhaps a little tougher for Pac10 teams but not statistically significant**

Away games
SEC opponents: 190-126 (60.13%)
Pac10 opponents: 234-177 (56.93%)

**The SEC opponents are tougher. You could certainly make a case that this skews the results, but at worst the Pac10 teams still do just as well as the SEC teams.**

Bowl games
SEC opponents: 298-121 (71.12%)
Pac10 opponents: 194-75 (72.12%)

**Despite Pac10 commish Hansen's best efforts, the Pac10 bowl opponents have a slightly better record than the SEC bowl opponents.

There you have it. Despite all the press to the contrary, the Pac10 out-performs the SEC in most situations. Perhaps the SEC teams are better than the Pac10 teams, but why don't the results bear this out on the field?