USC's D still untested

SI.com

A sports talk show host in Ohio began his interview with a college football writer this week by asking, only half-jokingly, "Now that USC has won the 2005 national title, can we begin talking about 2006?" An Oklahoma columnist surveyed Trojans players on their thoughts about chasing the Sooners' NCAA-record 47-game winning streak. Assorted blogs and fans sites have begun debating the question, "Is this year's USC team the greatest in college football history?"

People, people, people. Hold your horses.

It may turn out that these Trojans are worthy of all the accolades under the sun and that Texas, LSU, Virginia Tech and the rest of the nation are engaged in a glorified chase for No. 2. Anyone who would jump to these conclusions based solely on two lopsided victories against Hawaii and Arkansas, however, learned nothing from other popular but ultimately wrong assumptions, such as "Ohio State has no chance against Miami in the Fiesta Bowl," "the 2003 Oklahoma Sooners are unbeatable" and "Vince Young can't pass."

While it's hard to find fault with a team that won its first two games by a combined 99-point margin, USC didn't prove anything against Hawaii and Arkansas that we didn't already know. We've known since last year that Matt Leinart is a near-robotically perfect quarterback, Reggie Bush is almost impossible to tackle and that Steve Smith and Dwayne Jarrett are unbelievable receivers. As dazzling as the Trojans' eight-play, 92-second, 28-point outburst against Arkansas was, it wasn't unexpected. We've known all summer USC's 2005 offense would be one of the greatest arsenals of talent and experience ever assembled.

What we weren't sure about, and what we still don't know, was how good the Trojans' defense would be after losing six starters, including four All-America defensive linemen and linebackers. Sorry, but Hawaii and Arkansas weren't accurate barometers. Both teams are in the early stages of replacing four-year star quarterbacks (Timmy Chang and Matt Jones, respectively) with first-time starters, and USC knocked out the Razorbacks' QB, Robert Johnson, in the second quarter, leaving them with the even greener Alex Mortensen. Neither team has beaten a Division I-A opponent yet.

You really want to know how good the 2005 Trojans are? Tune in the next two Saturdays, when the defending champs open conference play at No. 24 Oregon and No. 18 Arizona State, a pair whose offenses rank among the most powerful in the country. By the time the Trojans leave Sun Devil Stadium a week from Saturday, we'll know everything we need to about USC's defense, and, in turn, whether or not it's premature to start engraving the crystal trophy.

Through three games, the Ducks and Sun Devils ranked 11th and second in the country, respectively, in total offense (USC is No. 3). Oregon QB Kellen Clemens is thriving in the Ducks' new spread offense, which resembles the version Urban Meyer ran at Utah last season. The senior has completed 65.6 percent of his passes for 955 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions, while also running 30 times for 137 yards. Receiver Demetrius Williams (107 yards per game) is extremely athletic, and veteran running back Terrence Whitehead rebounded from a slow start to burst for 96 yards last week against Fresno State.

ASU's offense, meanwhile, has been downright scary, posting a school-record 773 yards in last week's 52-21 victory over Northwestern, 560 in a 35-31 loss to LSU the week before. QB Sam Keller threw for a combined 870 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions in those games. Receiver Derek Hagan is among the best in the country, and freshman RB Keegan Herring has already posted two 100-yard games.

Aside from preseason All-America safety Darnell Bing, USC's defense is unusually light in the star-power department. Gone are staples Shaun Cody, Mike Patterson, Lofa Tatupu and Matt Grootegoed, replaced by names such as Sedrick Ellis, LaJuan Ramsey and Oscar Lua. They may be just as good or better than their predecessors -- we don't know yet.

Complicating matters, the Trojans' defense suffered a couple of key injuries in the Arkansas game. Starting cornerback Terrell Thomas is likely out for the season with a knee injury, severely testing USC's depth at what was already its thinnest position (fifth-year senior John Walker, primarily a special teams player, will start in his place). Meanwhile, the Trojans' most experienced linebacker, senior Dallas Sartz, and his top backup, freshman Brian Cushing, are sidelined for at least the Oregon game with shoulder injuries. Third-year sophomore Thomas Williams will get the starting nod at strongside linebacker.

For all the attention afforded Leinart, Bush & Co., the Trojans' dominant defense was just as integral to their past two national title teams. The 2003 and '04 squads both ranked No. 1 in the country in rushing defense and in the top 20 in scoring defense while producing a staggering 105 sacks. With this year's offense performing at an NFL-caliber level, the Trojans can afford a little slippage on defense, but they also can't assume the offense will score 50 every time it steps on the field. Nearly every national champion encounters at least one game in which it has to pull out a victory in the fourth quarter. For USC, it could come as soon as this weekend against Oregon (not likely) or next weekend against Arizona State (somewhat more likely).

If the Trojans give up 40 points or 500 yards to either the Ducks or Sun Devils -- or, of course, if they lose one of those games -- their aura of invincibility will take a hit. Suddenly the field will seem wide open. On the other hand, if USC beats those teams by the same healthy margin that it amassed against Hawaii and Arkansas, well, feel free to let the "best ever" debate begin.

Scoping out the country

• Last weekend saw an unusually high number of major injuries to high-profile players. In addition to USC's defensive losses, cross-town rival UCLA lost top receiver Junior Taylor for the season with a knee injury, a major blow for a team whose passing offense is really clicking. Florida lost its No. 2 receiver, Andre Caldwell (broken leg), for the season, and its top pass-rusher, Ray McDonald (partially torn ACL), for four-to-six weeks. Boston College QB Quinton Porter (sprained ankle) is doubtful for Saturday's game against Clemson.

• Paging Lance Leggett. For two years, we've been hearing that the 6-foot-3 sophomore is going to be the next great Miami receiver (his bio on the school's official Web site claims he "reminds observers of Randy Moss.") He averaged 20.5 yards on 17 catches as a freshman, but in two games this year he's caught one pass -- for minus-8 yards. Admittedly, the 'Canes first two opponents, Florida State and Clemson, presented some pretty stiff pass defenses (Miami concentrated almost entirely on running the ball in the second half and overtime last week). If he can't do it against Colorado's secondary on Saturday, he could have problems.

• In what has become the recurring theme of LSU's season, weather could play a significant role in Saturday night's showdown with Tennessee. While Baton Rouge is not currently in the projected path of Hurricane Rita, it's close enough that the area is expected to be doused with thunderstorms throughout the weekend, causing possibly muddy conditions at Tiger Stadium, which could be a severe disadvantage for LSU. One of LSU's greatest assets is its considerable speed on the outside, such as receiver Skyler Green. A game played primarily in the trenches would seem to favor the Vols.

• Here's a matchup you don't see often: On Saturday, the nation's top-ranked rushing offense (Minnesota, 335 yards per game) faces the No. 1 rushing defense (Purdue, 18.0 yards per game). Admittedly, both sides' numbers are inflated due to the less-than-stellar competition they've faced, but they're not entirely deceiving, either. With Laurence Maroney and a veteran offensive line, the Gophers are a dominant running team, and with 11 returning starters, the Boilers were expected to field one of the nation's top defenses. Something's got to give in this one.

• Ohio State's offense isn't inspiring confidence in Columbus following another shaky outing against San Diego State. I know Jim Tressel likes to play things close to the sweater-vest, but there's no excuse why a unit with that many weapons (Troy Smith, Ted Ginn Jr., Santonio Holmes) shouldn't score at will on inferior opponents. It does appear Tressel has at least committed to Smith as his trigger-man (he kept him in until the fourth quarter, and Smith ran for a team-high 87 yards on 14 carries), but it will be interesting to see how he performs against an awfully tough Iowa defense.

• Border rivals New Mexico and UTEP have played each other 72 times, but Saturday night's game at the Sun Bowl will mark the first time since 1957 both teams have entered their matchup undefeated. The Lobos, which have finally developed a decent passing game to complement standout RB DonTrell Moore, earned a measure of respect when they beat Missouri two weeks ago. It's hard to gauge Mike Price's Miners, though, because despite the presence of star QB Jordan Palmer and RB Tyler Ebell, UTEP needed double overtime to survive Houston last weekend.

Some quick predictions

After debuting at a respectable 6-3 in the new "stick to the scores" format, I think it's here to stay...

• LSU 27, Tennessee 20
• USC 41, Oregon 24
• Virginia Tech 21, Georgia Tech 13
• Ohio State 23, Iowa 17
• Michigan 28, Wisconsin 24
• Miami 31, Colorado 14
• Purdue 24, Minnesota 21
• Clemson 20, Boston College 14
• Northwestern 27, Penn State 24

Stewart Mandel covers college sports for SI.com.