Ted Venegas
USCFootball.com Staff Writer
This will be the last preview that I write, at least for the forseeable future. I just wanted everyone to know how much I enjoyed writing these articles, and how good it made me feel to read so much positive feedback from Trojan fans. I wrote these articles out of pure enjoyment of the sport and this team. The fact that many of you reacted to them in such an enthusiastic fashion made them all the more easy and fun to write. I just wanted to say thanks to each and every one of you. You have been an important and beneficial part of my life.
I think everyone knows that Texas is by far the best team that USC has faced. The whole season has built up to this match-up. There were no Auburns this year. In late October, there were still several undefeated teams, but in my mind, there was little doubt that these two teams would be the only ones left standing once the regular season ended. It's safe to say that USC hasn't faced a team like Texas, and the Longhorns have not played anyone as good as the Trojans. So fans can leave both of those arguments by the wayside. As attorneys would say, those are facts already in evidence.
This game has carried more hype even than last season's Orange Bowl. Two Heisman Trophy winners will take the field on the same team, and the only other finalist this season is one of the opponents. ESPN has been running segments comparing the 2005 USC team to other all time greats, even before the Trojans have proved that they are the best team of THIS season. The Longhorns have award winners at quarterback and in the secondary, and a finalist on the defensive line. So will this game live up to the hype? Last year's certainly didn't. Why not? Football is a game of match-ups, and the Sooners didn't match up well. Does Texas? Here's my take.
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| Wright looks like a nice guy, but he'll knock your head off |
USC Offense vs. Texas DefenseThe Longhorns are very good defensively as a unit. They give up 14.6 points and 280 yards per game. They held a high scoring Texas Tech outfit to 17 points. The Buckeyes couldn't even muster 300 total yards, and we all saw them torch Notre Dame. It all starts in the middle with senior defensive tackle
Rodrique Wright. He was a first team All Big 12 selection, and made quite a few All American teams. He was second on the team in tackles for loss with 13, an excellent number for a DT. He occupies two guys in the middle, and that free up others to make plays. It doesn't hurt that Texas rotates
Frank Okam and
Larry Dibbles at the other tackle spot. Okam made second team All Big 12 this season, and Dibbles did it last season. Defensive end
Tim Crowder made the first team, and DE
Brian Robison was left to the scraps of honorable mention, despite leading the team in tackles for loss and sacks. Along with talented freshman Brian Okrapo, the Longhorns feature the best and deepest DL that the Trojans have seen this season.
Still, the true strength of this team is pass defense. The Horns give up only 156 passing yards per game, and they are second in the nation in pass efficiency defense. Texas plays a very aggressive style of coverage. The corners play right on the line of scrimmage a lot, and the safeties spend a lot of time near the line as well. Texas as a team broke up an outstanding 81 passes, compared to SC's 52. That's because they like to challenge wide receivers before they can get into their routes, and more often than not, they are right on the ball when it is in the air. They only had ten interceptions, but that may be because a lot of teams stayed away from high risk passes because the Horns played so tight in coverage. Because they play so close to the line, it allows the secondary to be effective in run support as well. There are three secondary guys in the top four in tackling for Texas, and it's not because teams have had a lot of success throwing the ball. Plus defensive coordinator Gene Chizik likes to use Thorpe winning strong safety
Michael Huff on blitzes. They showed that a few times in the second meeting with Colorado. Texas is more than happy to play a lot of press man to man schemes.
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| Harris is the centerpiece of the LB corps |
If Texas has a weakness defensively, it's against the run, although its hardly a glaring one. The two teams that had success offensively against the Horns (Oklahoma State and Texas A&M), were able to utilize some option and some outside running to find the corners. The Trojans won't be running the option, or out of the shotgun anytime soon, but they have the ultimate outside rushing threat in
Reggie Bush. Texas has a couple of young guys at outside backer, and they have showed their youth at times. Middle backer
Aaron Harris is a solid player, but there is some speculation that he might be nursing a minor injury that is slowing him.
Texas will start the game in a base 4-3, but the Longhorns love to crowd the line of scrimmage, whether it be with corners, backers, or safeties. They usually start that in the second series, or in the first if the other team is driving. They don't do an inordinate amount of blitzing, but when they do, they come from all angles. This is what makes this match-up interesting. The Horns haven't faced an offensive line nearly as good as USC's, and the Trojans don't face many defenses that regularly play eight in the box football. Most teams fear
Matt Leinart and the passing game far too much to use that strategy. However, Texas believes that they have an elite secondary that can stand up to USC's receivers, so they are willing to take the risk. In my opinion, Mack Brown and his staff believe that the key to stopping the USC offense is by stopping the run. They are going to do what they can to do that. The Trojan receivers can expect to see a lot of bump coverage, so they have to make some opportunities for themselves. The opportunities for big plays will be there.
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| Associated Press |
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| Young is the MVP of college football |
Texas Offense vs. USC DefenseThe Longhorns are the best offensive team that USC has faced during the Pete Carroll era. While everyone talks about USC's offense, it's actually Texas that leads the nation in scoring offense. They average 508 yards per game as well. They have a lot of speed and talent at the skill positions, but
Vince Young is the straw that stirs the drink. He can do it all. People like to ridicule his release, but it was good enough to lead the nation in pass efficiency. He also led the team in rushing with 850 yards, and he has accounted personally for 35 TDs. He is fast, but it's not his speed that makes him remarkable. He is a big kid at 6-5, 230, and he is extremely strong. He is quick enough to avoid rushing linemen, and strong enough to throw linebackers and DBs off him. He is outstanding, and no one is more valuable to his team.
People talk so much about Young that they don't talk about the other players on offense. Texas has a great offensive line. They paved the way for Texas to rush for 274 yards per game, and Young was sacked only eleven times. Their tackles are especially good, which will make for an interesting match-up with Trojan ends
Frostee Rucker and
Lawrence Jackson. They have a couple of big play backs in sophomore
Ramonce Taylor and true freshman
Jamaal Charles. Charles was getting the bulk of the carries before he got dinged up a little, but he should be healthy tomorrow. The Longhorns will also rotate carries with other guys including
Selvin Young and the mammoth
Henry Melton, a short yardage specialist.
Texas has a lot of skill at wide receiver. Everyone talks about
Limas Sweed because of his size and his back catch against Ohio State, but he is only third in receptions with 28 catches. He is tied for the team lead with five TD catches.
Billy Pittman is not even listed as a starter on their depth chart, but he had 30 catches and leads the team with 23 yards per catch, and he is basically a starter in Texas' scheme. Tight end
David Thomas has more catches than any Longhorn, and also has five TD catches.
Quan Cosby is a starter at wide receiver, but he has not been a big factor, averaging just over one catch per game.
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| Associated Press |
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| Thomas is a playmaker, and he will have a big day |
Much has been made of Young's improved passing ability, but the fact of the matter is that this team is clearly a run first team. The Horns have 569 rushing attempts compared to only 296 passes. Even if you factor in Young's scrambles and sacks off designed pass plays, you still get a heavy rush lean. Unless Texas is in a short yardage situation or inside the opponent's five, they line up in the shotgun. Their base formation is three wide receivers with a back to flank Young. Sometimes they will run that formation with two tight ends, but usually less than 15% of the time. They have a few base plays from the formation: the option to the back's side, the sweep to the opposite side, the blast, the QB draw, or the read option, which involves the QB reading the end and deciding whether to hand the ball to the back or keep. Much has been made of the read option, probably too much. Young only kept on the play five times against A&M, and only once again Colorado. In fact, Texas ran the regular option more than the read option against CU. Plus, despite what many have written, USC has seen the read option this year against Hawaii and Oregon. The Ducks run a lot of it.
There are a couple of main differences between Texas' offense and the Oklahoma offense that USC saw in the Orange Bowl. First, the Sooners generally gave away the play with their formation. Since the Longhorns run almost all of their plays out of one base formation, they are less predictable. They will fake the sweep to the back, and throw the quick slant, the post, or the dig route. Play action is a huge part of their passing game, as it should be for any team that runs the ball so frequently. The other is Young. He is the kind of player who can make something happen when the play breaks down. Jason White was not that kind of player, especially after all of those knee surgeries. Young's most famous play of the season was a broken play against Oklahoma State, where he juked a Cowboy defender out of his shoes with a pump fake and then ran untouched down the sideline for a huge TD. That is what he brings to the table.
As a result, the Trojans need to find a way to keep him in the pocket and force him to throw the ball. If they can't do that, you could be looking at last year's Rose Bowl all over again. In order to contain him, that could mean that the defensive tackles are less aggressive with their pass rush. Most importantly, the ends need to keep Young from getting outside of them, where he can do some real damage. If USC can do that, they can take advantage of Young's weakness: interceptions. His low release and his poor footwork can cause balls to sail on him. He threw three more interceptions than Leinart despite having 106 less attempts. His INT rate is twice as high as Leinart's, and only eight QBs in the top 50 in pass efficiency have a higher INT rate than Young.
The most important thing that USC has to do to force Texas to throw the ball is to keep Texas' running game under wraps. With Texas' style of play and Young's ability, it is highly unlikely that the Trojans can hold Texas under 125 yards rushing. Still, if they can hold them to about 150, that might be enough.
Special TeamsThe Longhorns have a huge advantage here.
David Pino is a solid kicker, and
Mario Danelo has done a great job this season, so they will likely cancel each other out. Texas punter
Richmond McGee has struggled, but his short kicks have not given opponents much chance for returns. Texas only allowed ten punt returns all season, and the average on them: a mediocre 7.0 yards. From here, the differences are stark.
Aaron Ross has been a great punt returner, averaging 15 yards per return with two TDs. Taylor averages nearly 30 yards per kickoff return, and has great speed. Meanwhile, Bush averages only 17 yards per kickoff return and 9.9 per punt return, and his only TD came when he had to disappear into a pile and break about three tackles. Texas does a good job in coverage, and they blocked a whopping nine kicks this season. The Longhorns could make some big plays here. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Trojans employ the same pooch kickoff strategy that we saw against UCLA. However, it's unlikely that they'll be able to avoid punting in this game.
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| Associated Press |
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| Bush will get a lot of attention, so he may be slowed |
OutlookEver ask yourself why conference teams, even mediocre ones like ASU and last year's versions of Oregon State, UCLA, and Stanford, have been far more competitive against USC than teams like Iowa, Michigan, Oklahoma, and Auburn? The conference teams regularly see USC, and know what they are up against. The team that has had the most success against USC under Carroll? Cal, and Jeff Tedford is 1-3 against the Trojans. Since Pete Carroll took over at USC, every single Pac-10 team (and Notre Dame) has been on the bad end of a 24+ point defeat. Only Cal and Oregon State have not been beaten by 30 or more. These teams realize that they don't have the talent to play straight up with USC, especially USC's offense. They know that if they try to stack the box, that they will pay dearly in the passing game. So they do what is unthinkable in football: they surrender the running game.
Ever notice that Reggie Bush's highlight games tend to be the close ones? This season, Reggie had huge games against Fresno State, Notre Dame, Arizona State, and Oregon this season. The Trojans trailed at halftime in all four games, and three of them were contested into the fourth quarter. It was the same thing last year. In 2004, Bush's signature games came against Virginia Tech, Stanford, Oregon State, and UCLA. All four of those games were tight, and USC trailed at the half in three of them. Why is that? The reason is that opponents decide to make USC earn its points. Instead of playing up to try and stop the run, they take away the deep ball with cover two or cover three so that SC can't bury them early in the game. They attempt to make USC shorten the game and they try to limit the number of possessions. The Trojans will respond with Bush in those scenarios because there is more room to run against seven man fronts. When there are eight man fronts, the Trojans use
LenDale White to bang around in tighter spaces, and they attack with their passing game.
Much of the focus in this game will be on Reggie Bush. After all, he did win the Heisman Trophy, and Texas will be out to prove that Young should have won it. It's a plus that Texas' regular gameplan is to stop the run first by crowding the line. Here's where it's almost better to be a middle of the road Pac-10 team than a #2 Big 12 team when you're playing SC. The middle of the road conference team already knows that they can't play their normal, straight up, stop the run first defense against the Trojans, so they will adjust and hope that USC hurts themselves in longer drives with penalties, dropped passes, missed assignments, and turnovers. Better yet, maybe USC's offensive coordinator will be stubborn and will keep trying to throw deep even though it isn't there. That's what happened against Oregon and ASU in the first half. However, a team that has won 10, 11, or 12 games thinks that they can win playing straight up. They've won that way all year. Why change things now? That's exactly the trap that Oklahoma, Michigan, and Iowa fell into.
That opens the door for Matt Leinart. It's foolish to say that USC is a certain record when Matt Leinart does something, because he has only lost one game as a starter. So let's go a different route. When Matt Leinart has thrown for at least 300 yards and two TDs, the Trojans have won by an average of 33 points. Leinart has reached those marks in his two bowl starts. In fact, he is 41 of 69 for 659 yards, seven TDs, and no INTs in the Rose and Orange Bowls. That's nearly ten yards per pass. How did Leinart play so well against those excellent defenses from conference championship teams? They played the run first, and paid for it. If Texas schemes the way they have all year, they will pay for it as well.
USC's defense has been maligned, and they have had a few poor performances, namely against Notre Dame and Fresno State. Still, this defense has played well for most of the season. Seven of USC's opponents (Fresno State, Notre Dame, UCLA, Oregon, ASU, WSU, and Cal) are in the top 26 in scoring offense, and four of them are in the top 11. Among them, the seven averaged 36 points per game. The Trojans allowed 22 points per game against those teams. Texas played three teams in the top 30 (those three also averaged 36 points per game collectively), and the Longhorns gave up 23 points per game against those three teams. In my opinion, the main difference between the two defenses is the offenses that they have played against.
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| Associated Press |
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| Charles will be bottled up by the SC defense |
Texas' problem offensively in this game: most of their running plays develop slowly. It's not as tough to see the ball fakes because Texas lines up in the shotgun, so things don't get lost behind the offensive linemen as easily. The sweeps take a long time to get going, allowing linebackers more time to react. The option reads take a while as well. Texas can dominate lesser teams with those runs because they are more physical and they out-man those opponents with talent. I don't think they can do the same thing to SC. The teams that have had success running the ball this season against USC (Cal, WSU, Arkansas) have done it with quick hitting plays, and the Horns don't run many of those. The Trojans have played two teams that do almost all of their running out of the shotgun, Hawaii and Oregon. They combined to rush for 125 yards on 50 carries, 2.5 yards per carry. Neither of those teams runs the ball nearly as well as Texas, and neither has an offensive line as powerful. Still, the Trojans have been tough against the run versus shotgun teams under Carroll.
This is going to put a lot of pressure on Vince Young. I believe that USC will be able to slow down Texas' running game without committing safety help. Mind you, they likely will not completely shut it down, as they did last year against Adrian Peterson. Young's athletic ability will prevent that. Still, I don't expect Charles or Taylor to have a big game. Peterson and Chris Perry did next to nothing against USC in bowl games. Young will have to be the guy who runs the ball. I also expect the young backs to fumble the ball once or twice. The Longhorns lost only eight fumbles, but that was nothing more than dumb luck, because they fumbled an astounding 31 times this season, almost three per game. Compare that to USC, who fumbled only 18 times all season.
If the Trojans can slow down the running game from Texas' backs, the game will be on Young's shoulders. He is going to put pressure on himself to outplay Bush and Leinart. We all saw it in the game against Texas A&M. Despite completing an unbeaten regular season and finishing a comeback against a rival, Young looked like his dog had died. He played poorly in that game, partially because of the pressure that Bush had put on him with the big game against Fresno State the week before. Young must try not to press too much as he did against A&M. He will have to make plays with his legs, and he will have to be smart with his passes. I think he will run the ball well, and he could end up with about 100 yards rushing, or more. But he's going to have to pass more in this game than he did the rest of the season because you can't be one dimensional against USC. This is where his lack of footwork and mechanics is going to hurt him. Only one team intercepted more passes than USC did all season, as the Trojans pulled down 22 picks.
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| Associated Press |
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| There's a reason that Leinart has been the star of the bowls |
My prediction would change if Texas makes some big plays in the special teams game, as they are more than capable of doing. However, I think Carroll will try to take the air out of the ball, just like he did against UCLA. He will sacrifice some field position to keep Texas from getting the big kickoff return. He will have
Tom Malone punt away from Ross. As a result, the offenses and defenses will win or lose this game. The Trojan defense is going to give up some yards, mostly through the air and on the legs of Young, but Young's propensity to throw high is going to hurt Texas and cost them points. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, Texas is going to focus on the dynamic Bush, only to be hammered over the head by Leinart,
Dwayne Jarrett,
Steve Smith, and
Dominique Byrd, who has been an afterthought this season. The Longhorns are not a great pass rush team, getting 31 sacks this season. They are not going to be bale to get to Leinart without blitzing, and blitzing against SC only makes things worse. Ask Oklahoma. Texas has not played teams with the capability to hurt them with the deep ball, so they have been able to get away with their scheme. Ohio State was conservative and went with
Justin Zwick. The Fiesta Bowl showed what a foolish move that was. Oklahoma was still having quarterback woes. Texas Tech does not have the speed on the outside. Texas A&M was starting a redshirt freshman at QB who was a better runner than passer. Texas played only one team in the top 40 in pass offense: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders threw for 369 yards in that game.
This game will be tight early, with the Trojans adjusting to the tremendous talent that is Vince Young. Once that happens, forget about it. The Trojans will pressure Texas' offense with their own fabulous offense, and Texas will not have the success running the ball that they have had against other teams. That will lead to more passes from Young, which will lead to turnovers and frustration. Texas will try to make their run in the third quarter, but they will not be able to slow down USC's offense, which will take advantage of the turnovers and Texas' scheme by going deep early, and then letting LenDale White carry the load. Leinart will again be the MVP of the bowl game throwing for, let's say, 325 yards, three TDs, and no INTs. The Trojans will cap the greatest three year run in the history of college football by pounding another elite team in a BCS bowl.
Trojans-45, Longhorns-24